Marin and North Bay Market Report

Paragon Real Estate Group
Paragon Real Estate Group

The Real Estate Market Report
for Marin, Napa & Sonoma Counties

August 2014 Update by Paragon Real Estate Group

North Bay Luxury Home Sales

Luxury home sales have soared in Marin, Napa and Sonoma over the past 4 years, up 143% since 2011. Just looking at year-over-year sales, sales of homes of $2,000,000 and above have increased by 34%, while sales of all homes - constrained by low inventory and the dwindling of the distressed home market - actually dropped by 8% from 2012. This chart looks at where the most expensive homes sell - not surprisingly, the highest volume is concentrated in wealthy Marin communities such as Ross, Tiburon and Mill Valley, but the wine country also sees some very big sales.


Marin, Napa & Sonoma Home Prices

These 3 tables break down 2014 YTD home sales by city, bedroom count, number of sales, median sales price, average dollar per square foot and the highest-priced home sale during the period. Each table is in order of median sales price.


Market Dynamics Snapshots

These 2 charts are both good indicators of market heat: The first delineates the percentage of home listings accepting offers within the quarter, and the second shows the percentage of listings selling without price reductions. Other statistical measures also indicate a high demand/low supply real estate market through the 2nd quarter of 2014: Months supply of inventory remains low; average days on market for homes selling without price reductions declined to 39 days, from 64 days in 2012. And homes selling without price reductions averaged a sales price 1.3% over asking price.


Bay Area Home Prices

We just updated our map of comparative home prices around the Bay Area. Median sales prices can fluctuate for a number of reasons, but generally speaking, the trend virtually everywhere in the Bay Area is continued appreciation.


Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

This last chart, based on the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, compares market trends across the 3 price tiers (low, mid and high) since 2000. The low-price-tier’s bubble was fantastically inflated by the subprime lending fiasco – an absurd 170% appreciation over 6 years – which led to a much greater crash (foreclosure crisis) than the other two price tiers. All 3 tiers have been undergoing dramatic recoveries, but because the bubbles of the low and middle tiers were greater, their recoveries leave them below their artificially inflated peak values of 2006. The high-price-tier (which includes luxury home sales), with a much smaller bubble, and little affected by distressed property sales, has now exceeded its previous peak values of 2007, in some areas by substantial margins.

Notes: Sonoma and Napa counties aren't actually included in the Case-Shiller San Francisco metro area, but their markets have experienced similar dynamics to 5 counties that are. Remember that if a price drops by 50%, it must go up by 100% to make up the loss. The two "2014" readings for each tier in the chart below, refer to January 2014 and May 2014. 

Please call or email if you have any questions or comments regarding these analyses.

Fluctuations in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values are not unusual and these fluctuations can occur for other reasons besides changes in value, such as seasonality; inventory available to purchase; availability of financing; changes in buyer profile; and changes in the distressed and luxury segments. How these statistics apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

(c) 2014 Paragon Real Estate Group
No one knows San Francisco Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 |
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125