2017 Review of San Francisco Real Estate

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

San Francisco Real Estate Market

Looking Back on 2017
& Forward to 2018

January 2018

------------------------------------------------------------

The median SF house sales price in 2017 was $1,420,000 (up from $1,325,000 in 2016), and for condos, it was $1,150,000 (up from $1,095,000). Looking just at the 4th quarter, median prices were $1,500,000 for houses (up from $1,350,000 in Q4 2016) and $1,185,000 for condos (up from $1,078,000).

San Francisco, CA, National Home Price Trends

San Francisco Median Home Prices by Quarter

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County


The chart below, based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of homes in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area. Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends


Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles


------------------------------------------------------------


Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air - local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are also social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This report will range far and wide looking at real estate, and some economic and demographic issues that impact it. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum. A review of annual, year-over-year, real estate market trends in San Francisco are at the end of this report.


------------------------------------------------------------


San Francisco Home Sales by Property Type

San Francisco Probates Views Values

San Francisco New Home Listings Coming on Market

Link to our report on market seasonality


California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of SF and Bay Area demographics


San Francisco Employment Growth by Year

S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

Link to our report on economic context factors


San Francisco Housing Affordability Trends

Link to our report on Bay Area housing affordability


San Francisco Bay Area Rent Trends

Link to our report on the apartment building market


------------------------------------------------------------


San Francisco Luxury Homes Market

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Year

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Neighborhood

San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales by Year

San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales by Neighborhood

------------------------------------------------------------


SF Home Prices by Neighborhood

The following tables and charts are part of a larger survey, which can be provided upon request.


San Francisco Neighborhood & District Map


San Francisco houses under a million dollars

San Francisco 4-bedroom house prices

San Francisco 3-bedroom house prices

San Francisco 2-bedroom condo prices

San Francisco Condo Sales by Price Segment

------------------------------------------------------------


Annual Market Trends

Most of these annual trend charts show the market heating up again in 2017 after some cooling in 2016. Very generally speaking, since 2015, the house market has been hotter than the condo market, and the more affordable neighborhoods hotter than the more expensive. But 2017 was a strong year across virtually all market segments.

San Francisco annual median house price percentage changes

 San Francisco annual condo price percentage changes

San Francisco Listings Selling Quickly

San Francisco Home Price Overbidding

San Francisco Days on Market by Year

San Francisco Months Supply of Inventory by Year

San Francisco Supply and Demand Trends


All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

If you will forgive a little celebration on our part: In 2017, Paragon became the largest brokerage in San Francisco by dollar volume sales of residential and multi-unit residential real estate (as reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics). We opened our doors in 2004.

------------------------------------------------------------

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Pat.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

San Francisco Real Estate Market

Looking Back on 2017

& Forward to 2018

January 2018

------------------------------------------------------------

The median SF house sales price in 2017 was $1,420,000 (up from $1,325,000 in 2016), and for condos, it was $1,150,000 (up from $1,095,000). Looking just at the 4th quarter, median prices were $1,500,000 for houses (up from $1,350,000 in Q4 2016) and $1,185,000 for condos (up from $1,078,000).

San Francisco, CA, National Home Price Trends

San Francisco Median Home Prices by Quarter

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County


The chart below, based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of homes in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area. Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends


Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles


------------------------------------------------------------


Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air - local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are also social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This report will range far and wide looking at real estate, and some economic and demographic issues that impact it. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum. A review of annual, year-over-year, real estate market trends in San Francisco are at the end of this report.


------------------------------------------------------------


San Francisco Home Sales by Property Type

San Francisco Probates Views Values

San Francisco New Home Listings Coming on Market

Link to our report on market seasonality


California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of SF and Bay Area demographics


San Francisco Employment Growth by Year

S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

Link to our report on economic context factors


San Francisco Housing Affordability Trends

Link to our report on Bay Area housing affordability


San Francisco Bay Area Rent Trends

Link to our report on the apartment building market


------------------------------------------------------------


San Francisco Luxury Homes Market

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Year

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Neighborhood

San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales by Year

San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales by Neighborhood

------------------------------------------------------------


SF Home Prices by Neighborhood

The following tables and charts are part of a larger survey, which can be provided upon request.


San Francisco Neighborhood & District Map


San Francisco houses under a million dollars

San Francisco 4-bedroom house prices

San Francisco 3-bedroom house prices

San Francisco 2-bedroom condo prices

San Francisco Condo Sales by Price Segment

------------------------------------------------------------


Annual Market Trends

Most of these annual trend charts show the market heating up again in 2017 after some cooling in 2016. Very generally speaking, since 2015, the house market has been hotter than the condo market, and the more affordable neighborhoods hotter than the more expensive. But 2017 was a strong year across virtually all market segments.

San Francisco annual median house price percentage changes

 San Francisco annual condo price percentage changes

San Francisco Listings Selling Quickly

San Francisco Home Price Overbidding

San Francisco Days on Market by Year

San Francisco Months Supply of Inventory by Year

San Francisco Supply and Demand Trends


All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

If you will forgive a little celebration on our part: In 2017, Paragon became the largest brokerage in San Francisco by dollar volume sales of residential and multi-unit residential real estate (as reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics). We opened our doors in 2004.

------------------------------------------------------------

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group
 No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Pat.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

2017 Review of Marin Real Estate

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

The Marin County Real Estate Market

Looking Back on 2017
& Forward to 2018

January 2018 Report

------------------------------------------------------------

Another strong year in real estate, with continued median home price appreciation in Marin, and indeed throughout the Bay Area.

Marin, SF, CA, National Home Price Trends

Marin Median Home Price Trends by Year

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County


The chart below, based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of house in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area (such as those mostly found in SF, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley-Lamorinda). Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends


Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles


------------------------------------------------------------


Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air - local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This report will review real estate trends in 2017, and some of the economic factors that impacted them. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum. Towards the end is an extensive analysis of home prices by city and by bedroom count.


------------------------------------------------------------


Marin year over year home price appreciation

Marin Annual Homes Sales Volume

Marin County Sales by City

Marin real estate market seasonality

Marin Homes Selling Quickly

Marin Average Days on Market by Year

Marin Sales Price to List Price Percentage

SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory

California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of Bay Area demographics


S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

Marin County Housing Affordability

San Francisco Bay Area Rent Trends

------------------------------------------------------------


Marin Luxury Homes Market

Marin Luxury Home Sales by City

Marin Luxury Home Sales by Year

------------------------------------------------------------


Main County Home Prices by City
& Bedroom Count


Best Places to Look for a Home in Your Price Range

Marin homes under a million dollars

Marin Homes under 2 million

Marin 2-bedroom house sales by city

Marin 3-bedroom house prices by city

Marin 3-bedroom house prices - B

Marin 4-bedroom home prices

Marin 5-bedroom home prices

Marin 6-bedroom home prices

------------------------------------------------

Drilling down beyond the general statistic of median sales price, these charts give a better idea of how likely one is to find a home of a particular size within a price segment in specific Marin County cities.


Tiburon Belvedere home prices

Mill Valley Sausalito Home Sales

Ross Kentfield Larkspur Homes Sales

Corte Madera Greenbrae Homes Sales

San Rafael Anselmo Fairfax home sales by price range

Novato home sales by price

------------------------------------------------

Marin condo sales by city

Marin 2-bedroom condo sales

Marin 3-bedroom condo sales


All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Please let me know if you have any questions, or if I can be of assistance in any way. Wishing you and yours a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year!

------------------------------------------------------------

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Pat.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

The Marin County Real Estate Market

Looking Back on 2017

& Forward to 2018

January 2018 Report

------------------------------------------------------------

Another strong year in real estate, with continued median home price appreciation in Marin, and indeed throughout the Bay Area.

Marin, SF, CA, National Home Price Trends

Marin Median Home Price Trends by Year

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County


The chart below, based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of house in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area (such as those mostly found in SF, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley-Lamorinda). Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends


Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles


------------------------------------------------------------


Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air - local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This report will review real estate trends in 2017, and some of the economic factors that impacted them. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum. Towards the end is an extensive analysis of home prices by city and by bedroom count.


------------------------------------------------------------


Marin year over year home price appreciation

Marin Annual Homes Sales Volume

Marin County Sales by City

Marin real estate market seasonality

Marin Homes Selling Quickly

Marin Average Days on Market by Year

Marin Sales Price to List Price Percentage

SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory

California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of Bay Area demographics


S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

Marin County Housing Affordability

San Francisco Bay Area Rent Trends

------------------------------------------------------------


Marin Luxury Homes Market

Marin Luxury Home Sales by City

Marin Luxury Home Sales by Year

------------------------------------------------------------


Main County Home Prices by City
& Bedroom Count


Best Places to Look for a Home in Your Price Range

Marin homes under a million dollars

Marin Homes under 2 million

Marin 2-bedroom house sales by city

Marin 3-bedroom house prices by city

Marin 3-bedroom house prices - B

Marin 4-bedroom home prices

Marin 5-bedroom home prices

Marin 6-bedroom home prices

------------------------------------------------

Drilling down beyond the general statistic of median sales price, these charts give a better idea of how likely one is to find a home of a particular size within a price segment in specific Marin County cities.


Tiburon Belvedere home prices

Mill Valley Sausalito Home Sales

Ross Kentfield Larkspur Homes Sales

Corte Madera Greenbrae Homes Sales

San Rafael Anselmo Fairfax home sales by price range

Novato home sales by price

------------------------------------------------

Marin condo sales by city

Marin 2-bedroom condo sales

Marin 3-bedroom condo sales


All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

------------------------------------------------------------

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group
 No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

San Francisco 2016 Fall Market

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

Multiple Angles on a Changing San Francisco Market

SF Real Estate Market Continues to Cool Unevenly
& Luxury House Sales Unexpectedly Jump in October

November 2016 Paragon Report
------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco Median Home Sales Prices



Median sales prices usually jump in autumn, to a large degree because of the seasonal increase in luxury home sales, and that is what happened in October. The combined house and condo median sales price was up 6% from October 2015, but substantially unchanged from the previous peak median prices achieved in spring 2015 and spring 2016.



Click on the map below to access our updated Bay Area & SF home price maps




------------------------------------------------------------

Overview

The six weeks from mid-September to Halloween constitute the heart of the relatively short autumn selling season, with the market typically going into semi-hibernation from Thanksgiving through mid-January. (Sales still occur during this period and it can be an excellent time to buy with the big drop in competition.) Generally speaking, this autumn experienced further cooling in SF market conditions: October saw significant year-over-year declines in accepted-offer and closed-sale activity, and significant increases in price reductions and listings expiring without selling. Condos appear to be most affected on all these counts, with some decline in condo values: This situation is certainly being exacerbated by new condo projects coming on market at the same time that buyer demand has been softening.

The house market has continued to see declines in listing inventory and to shrink as a percentage of total home sales, thus becoming a scarcer commodity. It has performed much better, especially in more affordable neighborhoods. And sales of luxury houses suddenly spiked dramatically in October, though this appears to have been mostly driven by a huge surge in such listings in September. This jump in expensive house sales drove the median house sales price to its highest point ever in October, to just over $1.4 million. The condo median sales price in October, at $1,150,000 was above that of October 2015, but a tad below its all-time high in June. Please note that median sales prices are not perfect measures of changes in fair market value, since they fluctuate for a number of reasons, including seasonality and significant changes in the inventory of homes for sale.


------------------------------------------------------------

Bay Area Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Recent price changes by property type and price segment

Case-Shiller Index numbers all refer to a January 2000 price of 100, and track appreciation since then. Thus 243 on the chart signifies a price 143% above that of January 2000.




As mentioned in earlier reports, the highest pressure of buyer demand has shifted in the past year toward more affordable homes, and that is now showing up in the different price movements of low, middle and high-price tier houses. The Case-Shiller Index does not measure median sales price changes, but has its own special algorithm to determine same-home appreciation. This short-term chart illustrates how lower-priced houses have continued to appreciate rapidly, while mid-price and high-price houses have recently more or less plateaued, and condo prices have declined. The Bay Area Index for August 2016 was published in late October.

Chart: Long-Term, Case-Shiller Bay Area Home Price Trends

Link to our complete S&P Case-Shiller Index report


------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Houses of $3 million+/ Condos, Co-ops & TICs of $2 million+



This report will generally consider houses selling for $3m or more, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $2m or more, as constituting the luxury home segment in the city. They total just under 10% of total home sales. For the ultra-luxury designation, houses are bumped up to $5m or more, and condos, co-ops and TICs to $3m or more. These price segments total 2.6% of total home sales.

Pursuant to a big jump in new high-end home listings in September, luxury house sales in October, suddenly hit their highest point in many years, if not ever. This is illustrated in the red line in the chart above. Luxury condo sales reported to MLS, as seen in the blue line, were higher than in October 2015, but far below peaks hit in previous spring selling seasons. However, this does not count new-project luxury condo listings unreported to MLS, which are playing an increasingly large role in the market and creating substantial competition for resale luxury-condo listings.

Below are 2 charts breaking out luxury home sales by city district.





Additional Chart: New high-end listings coming on market


------------------------------------------------------------

Further Perspective

The past 14 months has seen the Chinese stock market crash, the oil price crash, Brexit, high U.S. financial market volatility, a slowdown in the Bay Area high-tech boom, and enormous election-related anxiety. It is difficult to tell exactly how these events may have affected real estate markets. However, despite significant affordability issues and the transition to less heated market conditions - as illustrated in the analyses of this report - so far, we have seen no sign of anything approaching an impending crash in our local market.


Selected Real Estate Market Statistics
Year-over-year changes by property type and price segment

Listings vs. Sales: The overall inventory of house listings has persisted in declining, while house sales are basically even year-over-year. Condo inventory continues to climb (without including new project condos not listed in MLS), while sales have been dropping.




Percentage of Sales over Asking Price: Condos saw dramatic drops in this metric, illustrating a significant decline in buyer demand and competition. Overall, houses have seen a negligible decline, maintaining a very high percentage of sales over asking price. Luxury houses, as mentioned before, experienced a stronger October market than last year.




Median Percentage of Sales Price over Final List Price: All market segments saw year-over-year drops as buyers refused to overbid list prices on the scale of previous years. However, the general house segment still saw a 9.3% median overbid of list price, which is huge, even considering that some agents are consciously underpricing their listings. The other segments, with overbid percentages shrinking toward zero, are seeing a much greater quantity of sales negotiated below list price. And this does not include the increasing number of listings that are simply expiring, i.e. with no sale taking place.




Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage Overview
All San Francisco residential sales




Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of listings for sale at the average annual rate of sale. All segments ticked up, indicating some market softening, but the general house market is still well within seller market territory. The biggest change is in the luxury condo market, where inventory has been hitting new highs, while sales have generally been declining, thus putting the segment in buyer market territory. Again, these figures do not include the large number of new-project listings and sales unreported to MLS, which would probably increase the condo MSI readings.




Average Condo Dollar per Square Foot Values by Era of Construction: Newer condos sell for higher average dollar per square foot values than older condos. Generally speaking, in 2016 there has been a tick down in this measure of value, which, as seen in the chart at the beginning of this report, correlates with the conclusion of the Case-Shiller Index as well. According to The Mark Company, which specializes in the marketing of new-construction condo projects (for which statistics are usually not available), average dollar per square foot values for brand new condos have dropped about 8% over the past year. This would presumably reflect the fierce competition between projects to sell out their inventories of units.



------------------------------------------------------------

The two following charts are from our recent report on the Bay Area Apartment Building market, mostly focusing on San Francisco, Alameda and Marin Counties.

Median Sales Prices for Multi-Unit Properties
by building size and submarket




Average Asking Rents by Bay Area County



Rent rates in San Francisco have been dropping in 2016 after peaking in 2015, with estimates of the decline generally running in the range of 3% to 6.5%, but with some city rental agents saying that certain districts have seen slumps of more than 10%. We believe there are 3 big factors at work: a rush of large, newly built apartment buildings coming on market; a softening of demand as hiring trends have fluctuated; and affordability issues that have caused more prospective renters to simply turn away from living in the city, their first choice, and look elsewhere. However, even with the recent decline, the city still has the highest rents in the country.


Link to our full Apartment Building Market report

Link to our full Rent Trends report


Our Best Autumn Ever

We hope you will forgive our celebrating the fact that Paragon, which opened its doors in 2004, represented buyers and sellers in closing more in San Francisco home sales in October than any other brokerage. [Total dollar volume residential sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics.]


------------------------------------------------------------

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.

© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

Marin Market Demographics

Paragon Real Estate Group
 


Marin County Demographics

Household income, homeownership, age, education,
sex, median home prices, rents and other statistics.

Autumn 2015 Report by Paragon Real Estate

Most of the following analyses were created with U.S. zip-code census data generated either in 2013 or from 2009-2013 5-year estimates, which are the latest available. Zip codes in Marin are generally identified with a specific town or city, but their boundaries may not be perfect matches for the municipality identified. Sometimes, there may be multiple zip codes for a city and the demographics can vary between them, as is the case with San Rafael. Still, even if the data is generalized and approximate, we found the insights interesting and hope that you will as well.

Two points quickly stand out: Marin County is one of the most educated and most affluent regions in the state, the country and the world.

Additional real estate market reports can be found here: Marin Market Updates and Marin Home Prices & Trends by City


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Median Household Income
by Marin Zip Code



Median Homeowner Household Income
by Bay Area County



Median Home Prices
by Marin Municipality, 2015 YTD





Owner Occupancy
by Marin Zip Code



Higher Education
by Zip Code



Foreign Born Residents
by Zip Code



Age Demographics
by Zip Code







Single-Person Households
by Zip Code



Sex



Residential Rents
by County, Q3 2015




4 charts from our 2014 survey of Bay Area demographics:








These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

Marin Fall Newsletter

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

The Marin County Real Estate Market

Home-Buying in Marin vs. Gold & Apple Stock - as an Investment,
Median Home Price Appreciation & Marin Community Values

October 2015 Report, including 11 Custom Charts

------------------------------------------------------------

The autumn selling season started with a surge of new listings right after Labor Day, but it will be another month or so before preliminary statistical data is available on home sales negotiated since then. However, it is clear that the recent volatility in national and international financial markets has not so far caused a severe adjustment to local home prices. While we wait for early autumn sales to close in quantity, we'll review the market from a variety of angles.


------------------------------------------------------------

Marin County Home Price Appreciation
Short-Term & Long-Term


2012 - 2015, by Quarter



It's not unusual for median sales prices to drop in the 3rd quarter - usually a slower selling season after spring - which happened this year as well. This has less to do with changes in fair market value, than with the fact that the market for higher priced homes typically slows down more than that of the general market in summer.



1990 -2015, by Year



------------------------------------------------------------

Return on Cash Investment

Comparing Buying a Home in Marin
to Inflation, Gold, the S&P 500 & Apple Stock



For the purposes of this analysis, we've broken home ownership into 2 aspects, the first being ongoing housing costs - mortgage interest, home insurance, property taxes, maintenance - which after tax deductions could be compared to the cost of renting a similar home. The second aspect, illustrated in the chart above, is the cash investment side of buying a home and the compound annual return on that investment, after closing costs and loan principal repayment are deducted, if one had purchased a median Marin home in 1994.

For the Marin County Median Home calculation - a combination of house and condo sales - we used the 1994 median price ($330,000), with a 20% downpayment ($66,000) and paying 1.5% in buy-side closing costs ($4950) for a total cash investment of $70,950. Net proceeds were calculated using the 2015 YTD median sales price ($935,000), deducting 6% in sell-side closing costs ($56,100) and the original 80% mortgage balance ($264,000), which equals $614,900. This equals an annual compound return on investment of 10.8% over the 21-year period.

All of us should have put every penny we had into Apple stock in 1994, but barring that, purchasing a home in Marin would have been an excellent alternative - particularly if you'd bought in its highest-priced communities, which appreciated even faster than the county as a whole. Three factors not included in the above analysis further increase the financial benefits of home purchase over the other investments graphed: 1) the $250,000/$500,000 capital gains tax exclusion on the sale of a primary residence (potentially saving up to $75,000 in taxes), 2) the "forced savings" effect of gradually paying off one's mortgage (if one resists refinancing out growing home equity), which has a substantial wealth-building effect, and 3) over time, the ongoing cost of housing with a fixed rate loan, strategically refinanced when rates go significantly lower, will usually fall well below rental costs that continue to rise with inflation.

With financial assets subject to market cycles, changing the buy or sell dates in this analysis can dramatically affect the return. We picked 1994, because of the availability of MLS median price data going back to then.


------------------------------------------------------------

Median Sales & Prices
by Community & Bedroom Count


3-Bedroom Houses




4 & 5-Bedroom Houses




2-Bedroom Houses & Condos



------------------------------------------------------------

Median Home Price Appreciation
by Marin Community, 1994 - 2015










Since the above charts track the combined median sales price for both houses and condos, those communities with larger numbers of condo sales will have comparatively lower median prices: In Marin, condos sell for much lower prices than houses.

We performed the above analysis for 9 other Marin towns and our full report can be found here: Marin County Home Prices & Trends by City. Simply scroll down the webpage until you find the graph for your community.


------------------------------------------------------------

3rd Quarter Market Snapshot




If you have any questions regarding this report or if I can help
in any other way, please don't hesitate to contact me.

------------------------------------------------------------

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate. How any median or average statistic applies to a particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. We are not qualified to render legal or tax advice of any kind. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 - 6 weeks earlier.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

Autuum Market in Marin and Sonoma

Html for September Marin-Sonoma newsletter:
Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

North Bay Autumn Selling Season Begins
Against Backdrop of Market Volatility

September 2015 Report for Marin & Sonoma Counties
by Paragon Real Estate Group
Including 12 custom charts

------------------------------------------------------------

Real estate markets are essentially determined by the balance – or imbalance, as is often the case – between buyer demand and seller supply of homes to purchase. Underlying that dynamic are economic, political and demographic factors – some local, some not – such as population growth, employment, new home construction, high-tech booms, consumer confidence, interest rates, affordability, stock market movements, shenanigans in Congress, and ballot proposals, to name a few. Even environmental factors, such as droughts and earthquakes, can jump in and affect the market. These factors are all jostling for effect, ebbing and flowing, sometimes appearing out of nowhere to shake things up, or suddenly shrinking and quickly forgotten.

We are neither blithe optimists, for whom boom times will never end, nor inveterate pessimists, who see bubbles and crashes behind every shrub. For what it’s worth, based on our survey of current economic fundamentals, we don’t expect an imminent crash in the U.S. stock market or in Bay Area real estate values. (This short New Yorker article is excellent on recent market volatility: Drop in the Bucket) However, economies and markets naturally experience fluctuations – short-term ups and downs, times of slowing and flattening – and it’s certainly possible that the balance between buyers and sellers might shift, that the frenzy in our market may subside, and that home prices may plateau or even tick down to some degree. On the other hand, due to the scale of the Bay Area’s economic boom and our generally inadequate supply of housing, demand may continue to exceed supply, and the pressures of recent years may continue.


------------------------------------------------------------

New Listings Coming on Market



In Marin, September kicks off the autumn selling season, the second busiest after spring, and the listings that come on market in the 4-5 weeks after Labor Day sustain the market until the mid-November slowdown. In Sonoma, the bigger market of the two (mostly because of Santa Rosa) and where second-home sales play a significant role, the most active period of sales stretches from early spring to mid-summer. It then gradually declines through the end of the year. Preliminary indications are that this September may be a very active month for new listings. If this is true, and especially if it marks the beginning of a trend of more listings coming on market, that might cool the competitive, low-inventory, “seller’s market” of recent years . If buyers are more hesitant due to recent financial-market volatility, that would also affect the market dynamic. In our opinion, neither factor is likely to flip us into a crashing or recessionary market.


------------------------------------------------------------

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers



This chart above illustrates the surge in buyer demand from the end of the last recession through the 2012 – 2015 recovery. Having the percentage of listings accepting offers in a given quarter over 50% and, during this past quarter, hitting 60% in Sonoma and 62% in Marin – extremely high percentages historically – has applied consistent upward pressure on home prices.


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)



Months Supply of Inventory is another statistic clearly delineating the high demand/low supply dynamic that has prevailed in Marin and Sonoma, and indeed throughout the Bay Area.


Average Days on Market



Generally speaking, homes sell more quickly in Marin than in Sonoma, and, right now during its current market frenzy, sell even faster in San Francisco (SF not shown on chart). Average days on market increase and decrease seasonally depending on the county’s market cycles: In Marin, they drop dramatically in spring – typically the most competitive season – usually increase in summer, drop again in autumn, and then jump dramatically during the winter holiday months. As mentioned, Sonoma has a slightly different cycle, with days on market dropping lowest in spring/early summer and then gradually increasing until hitting their peak at the end of the year.

------------------------------------------------------------

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index



An updated Case-Shiller Index chart for the San Francisco Metro Area, outlining the real estate market cycles going back to the 1980’s. (The June Index was released on August 25th.) Over the past several decades, we’ve never seen a crash or significant “correction” in Bay Area real estate that was not in conjunction with a major, sustained, national economic event. This chart is for all price segments, but the highest priced homes actually had the smallest bubble and crash, and are now above their 2006-2007 price points; the lowest priced homes had an enormous bubble and crash (due to the subprime-loan fiasco) and are still well below 2006 peak values; and the mid-price home tier’s bubble and crash was about halfway between high and low, and has just hit previous peak values again. Very generally speaking, heading north from Golden Gate Bridge through Marin and into Sonoma, one moves from high-price to mid-price to low-price tiers (but various communities buck that trend).

The numbers on the graph refer to a January 2000 price of 100; thus, the number 215 signifies a price 115% above then. It is interesting to note, that as of the June Index report, all three Bay Area home-price tiers – low, mid and high – have readings reflecting the exact same appreciation rate since 2000, which may be a sign of an equilibrium being reached in the market. Our full report: Case-Shiller for SF Bay Area

------------------------------------------------------------

Housing Affordability



The California Association of Realtors recently released its Housing Affordability Index for the 2nd quarter of 2015. All Bay Area counties saw declines in affordability – as measured by the percentage of households that can afford to buy the median priced single family dwelling. Sonoma is more affordable than Marin, and Marin is more affordable than San Francisco, which is now only 2 percentage points above its all-time low of 8% in Q3 2007. The city has higher home prices and lower household incomes than Marin, thus its affordability rating is lower.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS A COMPLEX SUBJECT AND OUR FULL REPORT, which also charts median home prices, rents, interest rates and inflation-adjusted housing costs by county, is here: Bay Area Housing Affordability


------------------------------------------------------------

Median Home Prices and Economic Indicators

Median home prices for Marin, Sonoma and California since 1990; also showing
San Francisco’s for 2014-2015 YTD. Home values vary, but trend lines are similar.



National, Marin, Sonoma & SF unemployment trends: All positive.
Marin consistently maintains one of the lowest rates in the nation.



National household-debt-to-GDP and mortgage-debt-service ratios –
huge issues in the 2007-2008 crash – have declined significantly since then.





Sustained movements in the S&P 500 largely correlate to Bay Area home-
price trends. Short-term financial-market fluctuations typically have no effect.



Price to Earnings (PE) Ratios of the S&P 500 Index climbed a bit high
in mid-2015, but not egregiously so compared to historical averages.
With the recent correction, the ratio has declined again.



------------------------------------------------------------

“Renting can make sense as a lifestyle choice or because of income constraints. As a means to building wealth, however, there is no practical substitute for homeownership.”
Homeownership & Wealth Creation, 11/30/14, NYT op-ed article


Sonoma isn't actually in Case-Shiller's 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area, but we believe the home-price trends delineated in the C-S Index are similar among all Bay Area counties.

Our goal is not to convince you of a certain position, or to minimize the effects of market cycles, but to provide you with what we believe to be straightforward data, so that you can make your own informed financial decisions pertaining to the buying and selling of real estate.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 – 6 weeks earlier.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

Marin Market News Midyear Report

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin County's Real Estate Market
The Paragon Mid-Year Report

Median Price Appreciation Trends, Luxury Home Sales, Dollar per Square Foot Values,
Interest Rates, Sales by Price Range, Sales Price to List Price & Days on Market

July 2015, Paragon Real Estate Group

------------------------------------------------------------

Short-Term & Long-Term
Median Home Price Appreciation






In 2015, Marin median home prices continued to appreciate and finally surpassed the previous peak values reached in 2007. Due to the much lower interest rates now (see chart further below), the actual ongoing monthly cost of homeownership is still significantly lower than 8 years ago for those who purchase with financing.


------------------------------------------------------------

Home Price Appreciation by City & Town:
Dollar Increases in Median Sales Prices




If you purchased the theoretical Marin "median house" at the bottom of the market in 2011, this chart shows the increase in its value through mid-2015. The luxury home segment of Marin's market has performed well in the recovery and, not surprisingly, higher-priced neighborhoods saw the greatest amount of appreciation in dollar terms. Overall, the median house price in Marin appreciated by 47% over this period.

Our interactive maps of North Bay median home prices can be found here: North Bay Home Values Maps


------------------------------------------------------------

Average Dollar per Square Foot Values



Average dollar per square foot values have increased across the board in Marin communities in 2015.


------------------------------------------------------------

Marin Luxury Home Sales



Some of the most expensive towns in Marin, such as Ross and Belvedere, are relatively tiny real estate markets as far as sales volume goes - which, of course, only adds to their exclusivity - so the higher volume of luxury home sales are found elsewhere in also expensive but larger communities such as Mill Valley and Tiburon.

The second quarter of 2015 saw a large spike in luxury home sales, similar to that of Q2 of 2014. The spring selling season is typically by far the most active time for high-end home sales in Marin.


------------------------------------------------------------

Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices
and Days on Market




In the 2nd quarter, the great majority of Marin home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold quickly, at an average of 4.4% over the original list price - clear indications of a strong market. Those listings that were price reduced prior to sale took much longer to sell, at a significant discount to original list price. And over 100 listings expired or were withdrawn from the market without selling, typically due to being perceived as significantly overpriced: Even in a hot market, buyers usually walk away from such listings.


------------------------------------------------------------

Marin Home Sales by Price Range



An overview of how Marin's home sales break down by price segment, which gives much more context to the market beyond the county median sales price.

------------------------------------------------------------

Mortgage Interest Rate Trends



What is often overlooked in the focus on home prices is the enormous difference mortgage interest rates make in ongoing housing costs. Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices since the market recovery began in 2012. For example, the median Marin house price has just surpassed the 2007 peak, but interest rates have declined 35% since then, dramatically altering the equation of monthly housing cost.


------------------------------------------------------------

Bay Area Home Price Appreciation Rates



Besides the general economic recovery, there are a number of factors in different counties affecting home price appreciation over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties terribly affected by them during the downturn (primarily Solano, Contra Costa, Sonoma, Napa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (primarily SF, San Mateo, Marin and Santa Clara), and 3) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley, its white-hot centers. The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and including Marin, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices, but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps.

Note that this analysis uses the combined median county sales price of both houses and condos, so they will not match those on earlier charts.

Median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Seasonality; big changes in the distressed, luxury and new-construction market segments or simply the inventory available to purchase; interest rate fluctuations; and other economic variables can all impact median prices. Short term fluctuations are less reliable than longer term trends.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 - 6 weeks earlier. All numbers should be considered approximate.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell (415) 990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

Marin Newsletter March 2015

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

The Marin Real Estate Market

Preliminary Indications of Another Strong Spring

------------------------------------------------------------

North Bay Home Prices; Inventory & Overbidding; Condo & Distressed Sales;
City Snapshots: Tiburon, Mill Valley, San Rafael & Novato;
Different Markets = Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

March 2015, Paragon Real Estate Group

Preliminary statistics and indications on the ground in the hurly burly of deal-making are sending signals of another dynamic spring real estate market in Marin. If it continues to develop as it's looking right now, with growing buyer demand vs. an inadequate inventory of homes for sale, this would make the 4th strong spring selling season since the market recovery began in early 2012.

In February, the median sales price for Marin houses was $980,000, and the median condo sales price was $505,000. For the last year, the title for highest median home price in California has gone back and forth between Marin and San Mateo Counties. Apples to apples, San Francisco generally has even higher prices, but because so many of its sales are now 1 and 2-bedroom condos, its overall median sales price is lower. Of course, between and within counties, values vary enormously between communities and neighborhoods.

------------------------------------------------------------

North Bay Median House Prices

This map gives a general idea of comparative house values in Marin and the Wine Country. Remember that median prices will often disguise enormous variety in the underlying individual home sales, and can fluctuate for a number of reasons.

We've also updated our Bay Area and San Francisco neighborhood maps, which can be found online here: Bay Area & San Francisco Median Home Price Map




------------------------------------------------------------

Sales Price to List Price Percentage

Overbidding & Underbidding Asking Prices




For the last few years, the average sales price to list price percentage has been peaking in spring as the market heats up, and bottoming out in December after the market goes into hibernation for the holidays. Right now, the market is in rapidly-warming-up mode.

For all February Marin home sales, the average sales price was 1% below original list price. Breaking down February's sales further, 75% occurred without a price reduction beforehand: These homes averaged a sales price 2.3% over list price, selling in an average of 40 days. Sales over list price often indicate competitive bidding. 25% of homes sold after 1 or more price reductions and these averaged a sales price 10% below original list price and 120 days to sell.

As a point of comparison with the frenzied San Francisco market, which has been supercharged by the high-tech boom, the average SF home sale in February closed for 8% over asking price. And it is expected to go higher in coming months.


------------------------------------------------------------

Inventory, Demand & Appreciation







Seasonality in the Bay Area often has more to do with winter and summer holidays than the weather since, unlike back east, January and February can seem more like spring. New listings and overall inventory bottom out in December, and then slowly rise in the new year. One factor that heats up the market is when buyers wake up after the holidays and jump back into the market much earlier than sellers put homes up for sale in quantity. For the past 3 years, this unbalanced dynamic between the high pressure of buyer demand pushing against an insufficient supply of listings typically caused significant home-price increases in spring. We shall soon see if prices can jump higher again in coming months.


------------------------------------------------------------

City Snapshots

Tiburon, Mill Valley, San Rafael & Novato






We picked four sample Marin cities in southern, central and northern Marin to illustrate house values and appreciation trends - using average dollar per square foot and median sales price - since the bottom of the market in 2011. Many factors can influence these statistics and each home sale reflects a relatively unique bundle of location, construction and condition, amenities and circumstances. Then each year contains a unique basket of such sales, which makes these statistics big, approximate generalities. For example, the average size of a house sold in Tiburon increased from under 2900 square feet in 2011 to almost 3500 square feet in 2014. That 21% increase in size is obviously going to impact median sales price above and beyond any general appreciation in values. Still, generally speaking, we believe the overall appreciation trend lines in the above charts to reflect market changes over the past 4 years.

What these statistics signify regarding the value of any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.


------------------------------------------------------------

Marin Condo Sales



Condo sales make up about 25% of home sales in Marin. This chart shows where condo sales are clustered within the county and the median condo sales price for each city.


------------------------------------------------------------

Marin Distressed Property Sales



High-priced counties such as Marin and San Francisco were never as drastically affected by subprime lending, foreclosures and distressed property sales as less affluent counties. At the bottom of the market, distressed sales accounted for 20% to 25% of sales here - which was bad enough - as compared to the 50% to 60% of sales in counties such as Solano and Alameda (where it approached catastrophic proportions).

Now distressed home sales are dwindling away to insignificance as far as impacting the Marin real estate market.


------------------------------------------------------------

Different Markets, Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries*

The real estate market is often spoken about as if it was a single monolithic entity performing in a consistent way - but nothing could be further from the truth. Markets vary enormously between states, cities, neighborhoods, property types and price segments. The S&P Case-Shiller Index looks at the Bay Area market* by breaking all house sales into 3 price segments - low, mid and high price tiers - each containing one third of the total number of sales. The exact price range of each tier changes as the market appreciates or depreciates, or more sales occur in one price range than another: Right now, the "high-price tier" for the 5-county SF Metro Area starts at $872,000. As a point of comparison, in February of 2012, the high tier started at $537,000.

Breaking down the market by price segment is a vast over-simplification - there are many other factors at play - but generally speaking, the lower the price range, the more the housing segment was impacted by subprime lending in 2003 - 2006. In turn, that caused the larger price bubble, and then the bigger crash as the foreclosure/ distressed-property crisis took hold.

Most Bay Area counties are dominated by homes in 2 price tiers, low and mid-price (such as in Alameda and Contra Costa), or mid and high price (Marin and SF), but there are pockets of homes in all tiers within most counties. The numbers in the 3 charts below all relate to a January 2000 value designated as 100. Thus a reading of 199 indicates a home price 99% above that of January 2000.


Bay Area Low-Price-Tier Houses - Currently under $542,000

The low-price third of sales was massively impacted by subprime and predatory lending - people buying homes they couldn't actually afford. It experienced an insane appreciation rate of 170% from 2000 to 2006, creating an enormous bubble. It then crashed by a catastrophic 60% due to the distressed-home phenomenon. As distressed sales dwindled, the recovery since 2012 has been spectacular, up 81%, but prices are still well below peak values and may not re-attain them for years. (If prices go down 60%, they must go back up 148% to get back to where they started.) Many homes in Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa, Sonoma and Solano* counties fall into this market segment.

Interestingly, this price segment was not impacted by the popping of the dot-com bubble, perhaps because these homeowners and buyers were less likely to be speculating in the technology stock market.




Bay Area Mid-Price Tier Houses - Currently $542,000 to $872,000

The mid-price segment was less hammered by subprime, but still significantly impacted. Its appreciation rate was 119% from 2000 to 2006 and its market then crashed about 42% before starting its recovery in 2012. This segment is now up 55% from the bottom and close to its 2006 peak value. Many homes in the northern half of Marin and the southern border neighborhoods of San Francisco fall into this price segment.




Bay Area High-Price Tier Houses - Currently over $872,000

Most of the houses in Marin (especially southern Marin), San Francisco and San Mateo, as well as affluent areas in other counties, fall into the high-price third of Bay Area sales, which was not deeply affected by subprime lending and foreclosure sales. Though its bubble and crash seemed dramatic enough to those experiencing them, they were much smaller: It appreciated 84% from 2000 to 2006, including a hiccup drop in 2001 after the popping of the dot-com bubble, and then fell about 25% (compared to 60% for the low-price tier). Its strong recovery since 2012, up about 44%, has now put this segment approximately 8% above its previous peak value in 2006.



Many neighborhoods in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo would easily qualify for an "ultra-high" price segment, and it remains generally true that the higher the price, the smaller the crash.

Though the price tiers had radically different bubbles, crashes and recoveries, all 3 are now almost exactly the same in relation to the year 2000, showing appreciation of 97% to 99% over the past 15 years. This suggests equilibrium is once again being achieved between them.

* Technically the Case-Shiller San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area is comprised of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa counties, but we believe its general trends apply to other Bay Area counties as well.


------------------------------------------------------------

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 - 6 weeks earlier, i.e. they are a month or so behind what's actually occurring in the market as buyers and sellers make deals. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

March 2015 Newsletter

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

San Francisco Real Estate: Here We Go Again?

Preliminary Indications Signal Another Feverish Spring Market

------------------------------------------------------------

Overbidding & Inventory; Bay Area Home Price Map; Renting vs. Buying;
Different Markets = Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

March 2015 Report, Paragon Real Estate Group
Including 10 custom charts

Preliminary statistics and, even more so, indications on the ground in the current hurly burly of deal-making are sending strong signals of another very competitive real estate market in San Francisco as we approach spring. If it continues to develop as it's looking right now, this would make the 4th intense spring season since the market recovery began in early 2012.

Once again, buyer demand has surged early in the new year without a corresponding increase in listing inventory: High demand meets low supply generates competitive bidding - sometimes fiercely so - and upward pressure on home prices. This doesn't mean every listing is selling over asking price or even selling at all - even in a red hot market, 20% - 30% of homes are price reduced before selling or withdrawn from the market without a sale taking place (usually due to overpricing). There are also hotter and cooler pockets within the market: Right now, more affordable homes - for example, condos under $1 million - appear to be in particularly high demand.

Sales volume in January and February was down 20% year over year, reflecting a market that pretty much shut down in the last two weeks in December, and then started the year with extremely low inventory.

------------------------------------------------------------

Overbidding List Prices



This chart above illustrates seasonal trends in competitive bidding, which underlies the phenomenon of homes selling for over asking price. For the last few years, the average percentage of sales price to list price has been peaking in spring. But already in February, prices averaged a whopping 8% above asking - very few other markets in the country are seeing anything similar. Drilling down by property type, SF house sales in February averaged 12% over asking, condos averaged 7% over, and 2-4 unit buildings 2%. Houses are becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of city home sales (since virtually no new ones are being built), which has generally made them the most competitive market segment.

In recent years, the percentage over asking has hit its highest point in May, reflecting offers negotiated in late March, April and early May.


------------------------------------------------------------

Bay Area Median House Prices

This map gives a very general idea of comparative home values around the Bay Area. Remember that median prices will often disguise enormous variety in the underlying individual home sales.

We've also updated our SF neighborhood map for house and condo prices, which can be found online here: San Francisco Median Home Price Map




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Inventory





Seasonality in the Bay Area often has more to do with winter and summer holidays than the actual weather since, unlike back east, January and February can seem more like spring here. New listings and overall inventory bottom out in December, and then slowly rise in the new year. What is super-charging the market is that buyers woke up after the holidays and jumped back in the market much earlier than sellers have put homes up for sale in quantity. For the past 3 years, this unbalanced dynamic between the high pressure of buyer demand pushing against an insufficient supply of listings continued through spring, causing dramatic home-price increases, until the market slowed during the summer. We shall soon see if prices can jump higher again in coming months.


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Days on Market before Acceptance of Offer

Months Supply of Inventory





The greater the demand, the faster listings go into contract (i.e. accept offers), and the lower the average days on market (DOM) and months supply of inventory (MSI). Both these statistics are currently in deep "seller's market" territory. Of course, this could change dramatically if we get a sudden tsunami of new listings or if a large, negative economic event happens, but right now, we don't have any reason to expect either to occur in the next few months.

As points of comparison, the national average days-on-market is more than twice that of San Francisco's (approximately 69 days vs. 30), and the national MSI figure is almost 3 times higher than the city's (approximately 4.7 months of inventory vs. 1.6). Many new listings in San Francisco are going into contract within 7 to 14 days of coming on market, as eager buyers swarm over them.


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Renting vs. Buying in San Francisco



Someone moving to or within San Francisco basically has 2 choices: Renting at market rate or buying at market rate. And rents have gone up so much locally that after accounting for multiple tax benefits, low interest rates, principal loan-balance pay-down (which adds to home equity) and estimated long-term appreciation, buying often looks like the financially attractive course. Above is one chart of a much more detailed analysis comparing the cost of renting a 2-bedroom San Francisco apartment at the current median asking rent, with the monthly cost of buying an SF home at the current median sales price after adjusting for tax deductions and principal pay-down. As seen above, the net monthly cost of buying can be less renting.

There are many personal and monetary issues that pertain to this decision and our analysis is based on a number of financial assumptions - interest, inflation, appreciation and tax rates; downpayment amount; maintenance and insurance costs - that you may not agree with or might not apply to you. You can review our full analysis and also perform your own calculations here: Renting vs. Buying in San Francisco


Selected U.S. City Median Rents
Chart courtesy of California Association of Realtors




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Different Markets, Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries*

The real estate market is often spoken about as if it was a single monolithic entity performing in a consistent way - but nothing could be further from the truth. Markets vary enormously between states, cities, neighborhoods, property types and price segments. The S&P Case-Shiller Index looks at the Bay Area market* by breaking all house sales into 3 price segments - low, mid and high price tiers - each containing one third of the total number of sales. The exact price range of each tier changes as the market appreciates or depreciates, or more sales occur in one price range than another: Right now, the "high-price tier" starts at $872,000. In February of 2012, the high tier started at a threshold of $537,000.

Breaking down the market by price segment is a vast over-simplification - there are many other factors at play - but generally speaking, the lower the price range, the more the housing segment was impacted by subprime/ predatory lending in 2003 - 2006. In turn, that caused the larger price bubble, and then the bigger crash as the foreclosure/ distressed-property crisis took hold.

Most Bay Area counties are dominated by homes in 2 price tiers, low and mid, or mid and high, but there are pockets of homes in all tiers within most counties. The numbers in the 3 charts below all relate to a January 2000 value designated as 100. Thus a reading of 199 indicates a home price 99% above that of January 2000.


Bay Area Low-Price-Tier Houses - Currently under $542,000

The low-price third of sales was massively impacted by subprime lending - people buying homes they couldn't actually afford. It experienced an insane appreciation rate of 170% from 2000 to 2006, creating an enormous bubble. It then crashed by a catastrophic 60% due to the distressed-home phenomenon. As distressed sales dwindled, the recovery since 2012 has been spectacular, up 81%, but prices are still well below peak values and may not re-attain them for years. (If prices go down 60%, they must go back up 148% to get back to where they started.) Many homes in Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa, Sonoma and Solano* counties fall into this market segment.

Interestingly, this price segment was not impacted by the popping of the dot-com bubble, perhaps because these homeowners were less likely to be speculating in the technology stock market.




Bay Area Mid-Price Tier Houses - Currently $542,000 to $872,000

The mid-price segment was less hammered by subprime, but still significantly impacted. Its appreciation rate was 119% from 2000 to 2006 and its market then crashed about 42% before starting its recovery in 2012. This segment is now up 55% from the bottom and close to its 2006 peak value. Many homes in northern Marin, the southern border neighborhoods of San Francisco, northern San Mateo and various areas of the other counties fall into this price segment.




Bay Area High-Price Tier Houses - Currently over $872,000

Most of the houses in San Francisco, San Mateo and southern Marin, as well as affluent areas in other counties, fall into the high-price third of Bay Area sales, which was not deeply affected by subprime lending and foreclosure sales. Though its bubble and crash seemed dramatic enough to those experiencing them, they were much smaller: It appreciated 84% from 2000 to 2006, including a hiccup drop in 2001 after the popping of the dot-com bubble, and then fell about 25% (compared to 60% for the low-price tier). Its strong recovery since 2012, up about 44%, has now put this segment approximately 8% above its previous peak value in 2006.



Many neighborhoods in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo would easily qualify for an "ultra-high" price segment, and it remains generally true that the higher the price, the smaller the crash. For example, most of the more affluent neighborhoods in the city peaked in value in 2007 or early 2008, then dropped 15% to 20% after the 2008 financial-markets crash. Due to the high-tech boom, many areas of San Francisco and San Mateo have significantly outperformed their price-tier in recent years.

Though the price tiers had radically different bubbles, crashes and recoveries, all 3 are now almost exactly the same in relation to the year 2000, showing appreciation of 97% to 99% over the past 15 years. This suggests equilibrium is once again being achieved between them.

* Technically the Case-Shiller San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area is comprised of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa counties, but we believe its general trends apply to other Bay Area counties as well.


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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 - 6 weeks earlier, i.e. they are a month or so behind what's actually occurring in the market as buyers and sellers make deals. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

Febuary 2015 Newsletter

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

The San Francisco Real Estate Market

Sales Price Trends, Neighborhood Values, Seasonality & Demand,
Condo Construction, the New SF "Airbnb" Law, Appreciation vs. Inflation

February 2015, Paragon Real Estate Group

The market just begins to wake up in January, so its statistics are not particularly illuminating. The last 3 springs in San Francisco saw frenzied markets, which took its home values to new heights. While waiting to see what develops in 2015, this report will drill down on other angles of our distinctive real estate market.

Note: On February 1st, San Francisco's new short-term residential rental ordinance, the so-called "Airbnb law," went into effect. In order to legally rent out your home for less than 30 days, there are a number of requirements pertaining to registration, insurance, advertising and taxes, as well as limitations on such rentals. Information and forms can be found here: SF Planning Department.

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San Francisco Median Sales Prices, 1993 - 2014




Unit Sales Trends by Property Type



The first chart above graphs median sales prices by year. Looking only at the 4th quarter of 2014, house and condo median prices climbed to all-time highs of $1,125,000 and $999,250 respectively, and the TIC median price increased to $829,500.

The second chart above illustrates sales volume by property type. Houses turn over much less often than condos or TICs - i.e. house owners generally live in their homes longer before selling - and with virtually no new houses being built in the city, house sales as a percentage of total sales are declining, but this has also made them the market's highest-demand, most competitive segment. Condos now dominate SF home sales and will continue to do so with the many new-condo projects being built. TIC sales are down almost 60% from 2007, probably due to financing conditions and changes in condo conversion and tenant eviction laws. The number of listings fell last year putting additional pressure on the market.


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San Francisco New Construction & Population Trends since 1940

After reading our recent reports on new development and factors behind the market, one of our clients suggested graphing out the quantity of new housing built in the city over time. Based on census figures, the resulting (very approximate) chart illustrates the decline in new-home construction in the 1980's and 1990's, which helped exacerbate our current housing crunch.

Another note: the housing "units" built in 1940-1950 were not only much more numerous, but were typically 2-3 bedroom houses, while since 1980, the units built have generally been 1-2 bedroom condos and apartments, which makes sense with our changing demographics - more singles and couples, fewer families - but obviously hold fewer people per unit. And now a big topic in development is building urban "micro-units" of 250 to 350 square feet.

Our chart on SF population growth follows as a counterpoint.





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Condo Values & Sizes by Era of Construction

A previous condo construction boom ran from the end of the 1990's until 2008, when it crashed for 4 years - and now we're in the midst of a new boom. Condos built in the last 15 years are selling at higher dollar per square foot values, but average unit sizes have also been getting progressively smaller - and all things being equal (they rarely are), the smaller the unit the higher the per square foot value. Of course, there are other considerations besides size that affect value: quality and graciousness of construction (i.e. Marina-style and Edwardian flats), views (most likely in high-rises), amenities (security, gyms, outdoor space, etc.) and neighborhood ambiance (Russian Hill vs. Noe Valley vs. SoMa). The average $/sq.ft. for new condos now exceeds $1000 in the city, and, according to estimates, at the new, luxury, South Beach development, Lumina, it is now running $1400 to $1500/sq.ft. on units going into contract.

As increasing quantities of "luxury" condos come on market in coming years, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts and absorbs the new inventory.



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Home Appreciation vs. Inflation

Since 1988, home price appreciation has hugely outpaced CPI inflation, though as seen below, the difference can swing dramatically depending on the exact point within a financial cycle. On a cash investment basis, if you had put $100,000 down on a $500,000 home purchase with a 30-year loan in 1988, by the end of 2014, per the Case-Shiller Index, your home would be worth approximately $1,900,000. After deducting 7% closing costs and paying off the remaining loan balance, your $100,000 down-payment turned into approximately $1.65 million in proceeds (if you didn't continually refinance out your growing equity to buy vacations and toys).

This is a very simplified calculation of a complex financial scenario that includes leverage, financing terms and interest rates, inflation, appreciation, multiple tax benefits and housing costs - you should talk to your accountant - but it still illustrates why a recent New York Times op-ed piece (11/30/14, "Homeownership & Wealth Creation") said, "Renting can make sense as a lifestyle choice or because of income constraints. As a means to building wealth, however, there is no practical substitute for homeownership."



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San Francisco Neighborhood Values

We just updated our semi-annual breakdown of SF home values by property type, bedroom count and neighborhood. Below are the tables for 3-bedroom houses and 2-bedroom condos while the full report can be found here. If you want data on a neighborhood not included, please call or email.





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Seasonality & Demand

This graph from our updated report on market seasonality measures the ebb and flow of buyer demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase. For the last 3 years, spring has been the highest demand season of the market, leading to significant home price appreciation.



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Bay Area Rent Appreciation

This chart is from our January Commercial Brokerage report on Bay Area investment real estate. The full report has more information on average rent rates and trends, and other apartment building financials.



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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

San Francisco 3 years into recovery

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

3 Years into the Recovery

San Francisco Real Estate as 2015 Begins

January 2015, Paragon Real Estate Group

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San Francisco Real Estate Cycles, 1984 - 2014





The 2 charts above look at the last 30 years of real estate cycles, and also compare percentage appreciation during the first 3 years of recent market recoveries (the light blue columns on the 2nd chart). Appreciation since 2012 has occurred somewhat faster than the other recoveries since 1980, but it is also coming off a much larger crash than earlier cycles. Typically, recoveries, and the upswings in appreciation they engender, have lasted 5 to 7 years - which is no guarantee how our current cycle will play out.

The chart below graphs the quarterly path of median house price appreciation in San Francisco since 2012, illustrating shorter-term seasonal cycles. Condo prices followed a similar trajectory, though at somewhat lower values: In the latest quarter, the median condo sales price was about $1 million.



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Neighborhood Affordability

Below are 2 of 12 charts in our updated analysis of What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco. These are meant as a general guide for buyers as to where to find the greatest choice of home listings in their price range - and to open up neighborhood options they perhaps had not been aware of.





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San Francisco's Luxury Home Market

Over the past 3 years, the luxury home market has outperformed the overall market as wealth dramatically surged in the Bay Area. In the last 15 years or so, the high-end market segment has been spreading from the classic, northern prestige neighborhoods - such as Sea Cliff, Pacific Heights, Russian Hill - to other districts of the city, such as those surrounding South Beach and Noe Valley.







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New Construction in San Francisco

These 2 charts are from our San Francisco Development Report, excerpting the highlights of the SF Planning Department's new Pipeline Report of residential and commercial real estate projects. Almost 7,000 residential units (sale, rental and social-project) and several million square feet of new commercial space are currently under construction in the city, with much more coming in the next few years (absent some large, negative economic event occurring).

Adding large quantities of new inventory should eventually affect the recent, high-appreciation dynamic for both sale and rental markets in the city, but so far, population, employment, wealth and buyer demand has continued to outpace supply. Also, the great majority of new-home construction intended for sale is for high-end, ultra-modern condos costing $1000 - and sometimes much more - per square foot, so how that surge in inventory will affect other segments of the SF market - such as for houses or Edwardian condos - is unclear.





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How the Bay Area Spends its Money

On a lighter note, and to take a brief break from real estate, these two charts, which we've just added to our recent Bay Area Demographics Report, compare how we spend our money as compared to national averages.





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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

Low inventory remains a huge issue in the San Francisco market. Typically, the year begins with the lowest number of listings, which then gradually increases into spring. In the past 3 years, buyers have woken up from the holidays much more quickly than sellers have put their homes on the market. This set the stage for the city's early spring market frenzies in 2012, 2013 and 2014. In the second half of 2014, home prices plateaued or even dropped a little in the more expensive housing segments, while continuing to tick up in more affordable areas. What 2015 has in store for the market will become clearer in the next few months.





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Mortgage Interest Rates

One of the big factors underlying the market's strength in recent years has been extraordinarily low interest rates, which have a tremendous effect on the ongoing, monthly cost of housing. In 2010, pundits almost universally predicted interest rates would rebound to 6% or higher, but instead rates kept dropping until hitting a low point in mid-2013 of about 3.5%. After fluctuating up and down a bit since, interest rates at the start of 2015 were still below 4% - incredibly low by any historical standard.




All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

Marin 3 Years into Recovery

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

The Marin County Real Estate Market

3 Years into the Recovery

January 2015, Paragon Real Estate Group

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Marin Home Sales & Values











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The Luxury Home Market

Marin County has one of the most expensive home markets in the country and its highest-priced segment has seen significant growth since the recovery began in early 2012. Such sales are concentrated in certain communities.





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Real Estate Cycles

The chart below illustrates in a simplified manner the market cycles of the past 30+ years. It is based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index pertaining to Bay Area "high-price tier" homes, the segment which dominates the Marin County market. We are approximately 3 years into the current recovery. Since the 1980's, recoveries have typically lasted 5 to 7 years before peaking - which isn't necessarily how this cycle will play out.



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Sales with and without Price Reductions

Those Marin listings that recently sold without price reductions sold relatively quickly and averaged a sales price 1% above the asking price. Those listings that went through one or more price reductions before selling saw large discounts off original list price and, on average, took 81 days longer to sell. And a good percentage of listings didn't sell at all. Even in a strong market, correct pricing, preparation and marketing remain vitally important to achieve the best possible result when selling one's home.



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Months Supply of Inventory

The supply and demand dynamic continues to favor sellers, which, of course, has been a primary factor behind home-price appreciation.



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Mortgage Interest Rates



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How the Bay Area Spends its Money

On a lighter note, and to take a break from real estate, these two charts, which we've just added to our recent Bay Area Demographics Report, compare how we spend our money as compared to national averages.






Please call or email if you have any questions or comments regarding these analyses.

Fluctuations in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values are not unusual and these fluctuations can occur for other reasons besides changes in value, such as seasonality; inventory available to purchase; availability of financing; changes in buyer profile; and changes in the distressed and luxury segments. How these statistics apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Header photograph by A. Gunther, use by permission under Creative Commons.

(c) 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

November 2014 Newsletter

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

San Francisco Autumn Real Estate Market Dynamics

SF Luxury Home Sales Hit New Peak

Neighborhood Snapshots: Noe & Eureka Valleys, South Beach
& Yerba Buena, Richmond District, Bernal Heights & Sunset/Parkside

November 2014 Update

The San Francisco market definitely cooled after the overheated feeding frenzy of the first half of the year. The competition between buyers for new listings declined to more rational levels: Homes that might have received 5 to 10 offers earlier in the year received 1 or 2 or 3. Values in many of the city's neighborhoods plateaued or even ticked down a bit after spring's big spike - the exception being districts with the most affordable house prices (under $1.2 million) where prices generally continued to tick up. The number of expired and withdrawn listings jumped 18% August through October when compared to last year, to over 460 listings, as buyers decided many sellers were pushing the envelope on prices too far.

On the other hand, as seen in the charts below, the autumn market has been very strong by any reasonable measure, just not one of utterly crazed competition. The number of house and condo sales was a little higher in October 2014 than October 2013, and that doesn't include a very large number of high-end, new-development condos that went into contract. Most of the city's listings have continued to sell quickly for well over the asking price and luxury home sales hit their highest number ever.

The market for multi-unit buildings did decline dramatically, but that was due to Prop G fears. Since the proposition failed on November 4, that effect should quickly dwindle. Meanwhile, buyers have a large inventory of 2-4 unit buildings to choose from.

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General Market Dynamics



Median Sales Price by Month: Median prices are affected by other factors besides just changes in home values, such as seasonality, inventory available to purchase and changes in the luxury market. It often jumps up and down by month and season without great meaningfulness. In this chart above, the spring spike, summer decline and early autumn increase are clear. Among other factors, luxury home sales usually jump in spring and autumn and drop in summer and mid-winter, and this rise and fall affects the overall median price. For the last 3 years, the general trend line has been dramatically up.

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Homes Selling Over & Under List Price: As seen in the 2 charts below, an astounding percentage of San Francisco home listings continue to sell over, and sometimes far over asking price. However, an increasing percentage of listings aren't selling at all: A hot market doesn't mean buyers will pay any price sellers dream up.

This first chart looks at SF houses, condos, co-ops, TICs and 2-4 unit buildings, breaking down sales by those that sell with and without price reductions, and the difference that makes in sales price and average days on market. Pricing correctly right from the start reaps significant rewards for sellers.




This chart breaks down SF house and condo listings by the percentage of list price achieved upon sale. Even if the autumn market isn't as white-hot as last spring's, these are incredible statistics. It should be noted that some of this phenomenon is certainly due to strategic underpricing of homes by some listing agents, which became increasingly popular in 2014.




Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): At just under 2 months of inventory, San Francisco's MSI is up from spring 2014, but still indicates a very strong seller's market.



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San Francisco Luxury Home Market

Luxury Home Sales Soar Again: October saw a big autumn surge in luxury home sales: It was by far the biggest month ever for SF house sales of $2m+, with 61 sales. Luxury condo sales were also quite high at 55 sales, a figure which doesn't include market response to the new "ultra-luxury" Lumina project in South Beach, where 80 to 100 very expensive condos went into contract amid almost frenzied bidding - these units won't close escrow until construction is completed in 2015 or early 2016.

The average days-on-market (DOM) for luxury houses sold in October was 21 days, and for luxury condos, it was 28 days: These are very low DOM figures, indicating quick market response to the listings purchased.




Luxury House Values: House sales of $2,500,000 and above, charted here by average dollar per square foot, cluster in a handful of areas in the city. The Pacific Heights-Marina district has the most sales and the highest median sales price for such sales: Historically, this district has been the city's nexus for big, luxury houses. However, the greater Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district now sees a substantial (and growing) number of sales in this segment, though at a significantly lower price point. This area is becoming popular with the young, high-tech, ultra-wealthy (such as Mark Zuckerberg) and record prices are being achieved. Russian & Telegraph Hills have very few house sales, but very high values, as seen below. And the greater St. Francis Wood-Forest Hill area is by far the best value for big homes (often on big lots) by how much house you get for your money.

Average house size varies from approximately 2700 square feet in Russian & Telegraph Hills to 3260 in Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys to 4200 in Pacific Heights-Marina. All things being equal (which they rarely are), a smaller home will typically sell at a higher dollar-per-square-foot than a larger one.




Luxury Condo & Co-op Values: The Pacific Heights-Marina district currently has the most luxury condo and co-op sales - but not for long: With all the new, high-rise condo construction in the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena district - already featuring the highest average dollar per square foot values in the city - this new residential area will soon dominate sales volume too. The prestigious condo and co-op neighborhoods of Russian, Nob and Telegraph Hill also feature some of the most expensive units in San Francisco. With new, luxury condo construction surging across the city, such sales - at very high dollar per square foot prices - are growing in neighborhoods such as the Mission, Hayes Valley, Duboce Triangle, Mission Dolores and Potrero Hill - and there's a lot more coming.

Average unit size for luxury condos ranges from about 1650 square feet in South Beach/Yerba Buena to 1900 - 2100 square feet in the older, northern neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights. Older buildings usually feature larger units.

Perhaps as many as 30-40% of luxury units in the city are being purchased as pied e terres and second homes by the very affluent, or even as investments (often by wealthy foreign buyers).



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Bay Area Real Estate Prices

These two charts come from our recent report on Bay Area Demographics, covering issues such as ancestry, income, housing and education.

Square Footage for $1,000,000: At average county values, you'll get double the square footage in Sonoma and Contra Costa as you will in San Mateo and San Francisco, and, of course, in other parts of the country, that can double or triple again.




Average Asking Rents: In terms of rental-rate appreciation, the Bay Area has 3 of the 4 hottest rental markets in the country in Oakland, San Jose and San Francisco. High rents, of course, are one of the big factors behind high home prices.



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San Francisco Neighborhood Snapshots

A look at long-term home-value trends in selected city districts. Please call or email if you'd like information on another neighborhood. Median and average statistics are generalities which summarize a huge range of underlying, individual sales.











All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2014 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 

San Francisco Housing Demographics

Paragon Real Estate Group
 

San Francisco Bay Area Demographics

18 charted analyses of ancestry, affluence, education, real estate,
politics, poverty and employment for San Francisco, Marin, Napa,
Sonoma, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda & Contra Costa Counties.

4th Quarter 2014, Paragon Special Report

These charts are mostly based on U.S. Census surveys from 2010 to 2013. Each of the 8 counties examined contains areas of widely varying demographics, and the multiple reports analyzed (6+ for each county) contain counts and estimates made at different times. Though these statistics are broad overviews, we still found many unexpected insights - and hope you will as well.

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Ancestry, Race & Age


For the most part, the ancestry and race categories used below
are as designated in the U.S. Census reports.

Ancestry: This first chart is a collated overview of the 8 counties. The Bay Area is one of the most multi-cultural places on earth, but (not broken out on this chart) this diversity is not evenly spread: Different ethnic and national groups often cluster in specific counties. For example, San Francisco has the largest populations with Chinese or Russian ancestry; Santa Clara has, by far, the greatest number of residents from India, Vietnam or Mexico; Alameda leads in those of Portuguese or Pacific Island heritage. For breakdowns by county, U.S. Census reports can be accessed at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html.




Race: Marin County has by far the largest percentage white (non-Hispanic) population at 73%, followed by Sonoma and Napa. San Francisco has the largest Asian percentage at 34.4%, with Santa Clara just behind at 34.1%. Santa Clara is the only county where white isn't the largest group - Asian is bigger by a tiny margin. Napa has the largest Hispanic percentage at 33%, with 5 other counties between 23% and 27%. Alameda has the most substantial percentage black population at 12%.




Foreign-Born: The foreign-born population in the Bay Area is large (behind only New York, Miami, LA and Chicago) with again, different groups predominating in different counties. About 50% of our foreign-born residents have acquired U.S. citizenship.




Children & Residents Living Alone: It has famously been said that San Francisco has more dogs than children, and at 13.4%, SF has the lowest percentage of residents under 18 of any major U.S. city. The other counties run close to the national percentage of 23%. San Francisco also has a much higher proportion of residents living alone than the other 7 counties - which probably correlates with a more urban lifestyle.

It's interesting to note (not delineated on the chart) that though SF has relatively few children, its population aged 25 to 39 is very high, at just below 30%. Other Bay Area counties run from 16% (Marin) to 23% (Santa Clara). Demographers have noted that younger, post-college adults are moving into urban centers in large numbers, and this is clearly occurring in San Francisco. The city's young, high-tech, start-up environment is undoubtedly supercharging this phenomenon.



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Affluence, Poverty, Education & Politics


Median Household Income: Many factors impact this statistic: household size, level of education, percentages of homeowners vs. renters, median age and of course, employment. Marin and Santa Clara are at the top of the list for highest household income. Obviously, various towns and neighborhoods - such as Pacific Heights, Belvedere, Atherton, Piedmont, Blackhawk - far exceed the figures in the chart below.




Poverty: According to Wealth-X, the Bay Area has the 3rd highest number of ultra-high-net-worth residents in the country, behind NY and LA, and according to SFLuxe, it is now home to over 70 billionaires - it seems one can't turn around in Safeway without bumping into another new billionaire.

But surging affluence isn't the only story.

The U.S. poverty-level income threshold does not vary by geographic region: For a family of 4, the national threshold is approximately $23,500. According to a Stanford think tank, adjusting for much higher local costs of living (especially housing) raises that threshold to $31,000 - $36,500 in Bay Area counties. In San Francisco, that increases the percentage of residents living in poverty to 23% and in Napa, to 26%. Adjusted or not, the percentages add up to many hundreds of thousands of people - and this seems an appropriate place to remind all of us not to forget the neediest this holiday season.




Unemployment Rates: A big factor behind Bay Area economic conditions has been the strong growth in employment in recent years - in high-tech certainly, but also in the financial, medical, retail, construction and other industries. Many of these new jobs are very well paid.




Education: Some Bay Area counties are among the most educated in the country - not a big surprise considering the presence of 3 of the world's great universities, and the Bay Area's role as a hub for various high-education industries. Among U.S. major cities, San Francisco usually ranks near the top of the list just below Washington D.C. and Seattle.




Political Party Registration: This chart is self-explanatory. The Bay Area is a very blue region in a very blue state.



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Housing, Real Estate, Prices & Rents


Median Home Prices: Apples to apples, San Francisco has the most expensive real estate in the Bay Area, followed by San Mateo and Marin. But all the counties include diverse neighborhoods featuring home prices ranging from relatively low to very high. One thing that stands out is the city's distinctive condo market: the median price for 2-bedroom condos is just a tad lower than its median price for 3-bedroom houses. The reasons are twofold: firstly, very generally speaking, condos predominate in the more affluent city neighborhoods, while houses predominate in the less affluent. Secondly, thousands of new condos have been built in the last 10 years, or are under construction now, and by and large, they are of luxury or "ultra-luxury" quality and cost.




For a Million Dollars: Consider this infographic to be very approximate indeed, but it gives an idea of what one would get in square footage for $1,000,000 at each county's overall house and condo average dollar-per-square-foot value. For the money, one gets more than twice the space in Contra Costa or Sonoma as in San Francisco or San Mateo. In many parts of the country, you could double or triple the square footage again.




Case-Shiller Home-Price Trends: The Case-Shiller SF Metro Area does not cover all 8 of the Bay Area counties, but it generally applies to the overall market. If Case-Shiller went back a bit further, we would see the late seventies/early eighties recession on this chart. From recession - which in the last 30-odd years has typically lasted 4-5 years - comes recovery (typically very robust recovery). Recovery usually takes 5-7 years to become utterly "over-exuberant," which leads to a correction - and the next recession. We are still less than 3 years into our current recovery - which doesn't mean that past trends will hold true in the future.

This chart aggregating all the sales of 5 counties is a huge simplification of hundreds of different micro-markets: Different areas and price segments of the Bay Area housing market had 2004 - 2008 bubbles and crashes of vastly different magnitudes. The lowest price segment rose and crashed the most (think "subprime loans") and, though recovering dramatically, is still well below 2006 peak values. The higher priced housing segment had a much smaller bubble and crash, and has now exceeded its previous peak values of 2007-2008, in many cases by substantial margins. All 3 Bay Area home price segments - low, middle and high - are now approximately 95% - 97% above their values of year 2000 (denoted as "100" on the chart).




Average Asking Rents: In the Bay Area, rising apartment rents and rising home prices have gone hand in hand, a big social, economic and political issue right now. Per the analytics firm Reis, San Jose, Oakland and Francisco are 3 of the 4 hottest rental markets in the country, as measured by rent appreciation.




Homeownership: With San Francisco's homeownership rate of 37%, tenants outnumber homeowners by a large margin - and, not surprisingly, the city has some of the strongest rent and eviction controls in the country. (SF rent-limitation controls do not typically affect vacant or recently built apartments, so they do not reduce the "asking rent" values seen in the earlier chart.)




Market Size: Santa Clara and the two East Bay counties each have more than twice as many home sales as any of the other 5 counties. This is mostly due to significantly higher populations, but San Francisco's relatively low number of home sales is also caused by the fact that almost two thirds of its units are rental housing: Thus, SF has more people but fewer home sales than San Mateo. Very limited supply amid huge demand is a big factor in its rising home prices.




Era of Construction: This chart illustrates how much emptier the Bay Area was 75 years ago, before World War II: Almost 50% of San Francisco's housing was built prior to 1940, but in 6 of the other counties, the percentage falls to 12% or lower. In Santa Clara and Contra Costa, it drops to 5% - all over the Bay Area, there were a lot of open fields where entirely new neighborhoods sit now.



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Population, Density & Size


Population & Population Density: Santa Clara and Alameda have the largest populations of the 8 counties. San Francisco, the second most densely populated city in the country (far behind Manhattan), has a population density 95 times that of Napa County.




Size in Square Miles: This chart reminds us what a small place San Francisco really is - and its inability to expand (except upward) plays an interesting role in many of its economic and social dynamics. Sonoma is the largest of the 8 counties and it is 33 times as large as San Francisco County.



The demographics and financial realities of the San Francisco Bay Area are constantly changing, so consider the numbers in these analyses to be very general estimates with reasonable margins of error. This report was created in good faith and is based on data from sources deemed reliable; however, it should not be considered comprehensive, may contain inadvertent errors and misrepresentations, and is subject to revision. Paragon emphatically supports all housing discrimination laws in its practice.

(c) October 2014 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Contact me anytime for assistance and resources regarding living in the Bay Area.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
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3rd Quarter North Bay Report

Patricia Carapiet
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

3rd Quarter Real Estate Market Report
for Marin, Napa & Sonoma Counties

October 2014 Update by Paragon Real Estate Group

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North Bay Home Appreciation since 2011

In the last 2 quarters, as the market continued to appreciate, North Bay home values hit their highest points since the bottom of the market in 2011. Below are snapshots of the increase in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values for selected, representative cities.

Generally speaking, the biggest jumps are for those areas - usually at the lower price ranges - hit hardest by the foreclosure/distressed property crisis (now rapidly dwindling): Their values took the biggest hit during the downturn and are now experiencing a bigger rebound.

Note that these median and average statistics can be affected, and affected differently by a variety of factors. Appreciation rates for the same city can vary between the two statistics (see Healdsburg & Ross/Kentfield below). As one example, all things being equal, bigger houses typically sell for higher prices, but lower dollar per square foot values than smaller ones. These numbers should be considered very general and approximate indicators of market conditions.






Though North Bay homes are not cheap by state or national standards, all 3 counties offer substantial discounts in price - significantly bigger discounts in Sonoma and Napa than in Marin - when compared to homes of similar size, quality and neighborhood ambiance in San Francisco. Even in Marin, which has long been one of the wealthiest counties in the country, home prices generally run 25% to 40% lower than for comparable homes in the city. This along with school and quality of life issues is a major factor behind buyer demand here.


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Sales Price to Original List Price (SP-OP)

The first chart illustrates the trend of average percentage of original list price achieved upon sale over the past few years: The higher the percentage the greater the buyer competition for new home listings. The North Bay has been experiencing a strong seller's market, but not the feeding frenzy of San Francisco, where the SP-OP percentage hit an astounding 109% this past spring.

The second chart delineates the difference in the SP-OP percentage and average days on market between homes that sold with and without price reductions. The 71% of North Bay home sales that sold without price reductions in the 3rd quarter averaged a sales price 2% above asking price, with an average days-on-market of 45 days. Those selling after price reductions took 2 months longer to sell at an average discount of 10% off original list price. And for every 4 sales, 1 listing expired without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced.

Even in a seller's market, correct pricing, preparation and marketing are key to achieving the desired end result.





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Market Dynamics Snapshots

Months Supply of Inventory & Average Days on Market


These are 2 classic indicators of trends in supply and demand: The lower the readings, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase. As indicated in the county breakdowns, the Marin and Sonoma homes markets have been somewhat stronger than the Napa market recently.





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Where Do the Sales Occur?

Looking at the respective sizes of North Bay town and city markets by quantity of sales provides further insight into the supply side dynamic: Some of our local markets are very small and very exclusive indeed. Santa Rosa, for example, sells about the same number of homes in a week as Belvedere does in a year. Of course, the median home price in Santa Rosa is less than 17% that of Belvedere: Though there are clearly other factors at play, the extremely low inventory of homes available to purchase in Belvedere does play a role in its extremely high home values.


Please call or email if you have any questions or comments regarding these analyses.

Fluctuations in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values are not unusual and these fluctuations can occur for other reasons besides changes in value, such as seasonality; inventory available to purchase; availability of financing; changes in buyer profile; and changes in the distressed and luxury segments. How these statistics apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

(c) 2014 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/
 
Source: about:blank

September 2014 Newsletter

Paragon Real Estate Group
 
Paragon Real Estate Group

Autumn Selling Season Begins & New Listings Surge

September 2014 Paragon Report for San Francisco

Coming out of the summer slowdown, the last big sales season of the year runs from early September to mid-November (when the market usually retreats into semi-hibernation until mid-January). September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings and this year, it started out with a bang: 300 new listings hit the market in the first week after Labor Day. As a point of comparison, May, the biggest new-listing month YTD, had a total of 720.

A list of San Francisco's most recent listings can be found here, easily sortable by neighborhood, property type and price: New Home Listings

This year's summer slowdown was bigger than usual: Compared to 2013, the number of listings coming on market dropped 12% and the number of sales fell 16% - these are large drops. Median sales prices also declined significantly from the spring peak, but summer price drops are normal due to seasonal factors. We've found it difficult and risky to make confident assessments of market trends during the summer or winter holiday slowdowns: One really has to see what happens in spring and autumn when sellers and buyers jump back in.


San Francisco, California & United States Markets



This chart compares Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) - a measurement of buyer demand against the supply of homes for sale; median Days on Market (DOM) - how quickly new listings go into contract; and median home sales prices, for the city, state and country. Typically, an MSI under 3 months is considered a seller's market; at an average of 1.5 months of inventory over the summer, San Francisco would be considered an extreme seller's market (which puts upward pressure on prices). San Francisco's median days-on-market figure is also extraordinarily low, and of course, our home prices are significantly higher than all but a few places on the planet.

Not shown on the chart, but another dramatic indicator of market conditions: Over the last 3 months the average SF home sale closed for 7% over the original asking price. (It hit 10% in May at the height of the spring frenzy.)

10 Factors behind the San Francisco Real Estate Market

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San Francisco Home Sales by Property Type & Price Range





Unlike the vast majority of other counties, condos and condo-like homes such as co-ops and TICs now predominate in the SF market, a trend that will only accelerate as dozens of (expensive) new-condo projects come on line in coming years. The difference in median sales prices between houses and condos has also narrowed to less than 12% - when condos used to be the significantly cheaper alternative. Condos also play a huge role in luxury home sales, often selling for the highest dollar per square foot figures in the city. TIC sales, almost an exclusively SF phenomenon, have been dwindling, but now sometimes command prices in excess of $1,500,000.

The relatively small quantity - and declining percentage of sales - of house listings in San Francisco has put significant competitive pressure on house prices. This effect has been cascading through the city's neighborhoods, from most desirable to historically less desirable, as families search for affordable options in a rapidly appreciating market. Very, very few new houses are being built in the city and those that are, are typically very costly.

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Seasonality & the Real Estate Market





In August we completed an analysis of how seasonality affects inventory, buyer demand and median sales prices. These 2 charts illustrate its effect on listings accepting offers and prices. Please note that other factors besides changes in values can affect median price fluctuations. For the complete report: Seasonality & Real Estate

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San Francisco Neighborhood Home Prices



We recently issued our semi-annual breakdown of San Francisco home sales by neighborhood, property type and bedroom count. This table is for 3-bedroom houses. For our complete analysis (8 tables): SF Neighborhood Values

For our updated map of home values around the Bay Area: Bay Area Map

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Selected Neighborhood Snapshots

Long-term Trends in San Francisco Home Values








Please call or email if you'd like information on a different neighborhood.
We've analyzed dozens of neighborhoods around the city.

And, last but not least, as the Napa earthquake reminded us, it makes supreme good sense to make basic precautionary preparations to safeguard against possible natural disasters: Being Prepared

All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Note that every time one looks at median or average sales prices for even slightly differing time periods, the prices will typically change. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2014 Paragon Real Estate Group
 
No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.
Paragon Real Estate Group
(415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com/
Patricia Carapiet
Lic# 00895957
1400 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Direct (415) 738-7218
Cell 415.990-9125
pcarapiet@paragon-re.com
http://www.patcarapiet.com/